Timeless Strategy Meets New Medium: Going Negative on Congressional Campaign Websites, 2002-2006

Abstract: In a few short years, the World Wide Web has become a standard part of candidates’ campaign tool kits. Virtually all candidates have their own sites; and voters, journalists, and activists visit the sites with increasing frequency. In this paper, we study what candidates do on these sites—in terms of the information they present—by exploring one of the most enduring and widely debated campaign strategies: “going negative. ” Comparing data from over 700 congressional candidate websites, over three election cycles (2002, 2004, and 2006), with television advertising data, we show that candidates go negative with similar likelihoods across these media. We also find that while similar dynamics drive negativity on the Web and in television advertising, there are some notable differences. These differences likely stem, in part, from the truncated sample available with television data (i.e., many candidates do not produce ads). Our results have implications for understanding negative campaigning, and for the ways in which scholars can study campaign dynamics

Representation of Markov chains by random maps: existence and regularity conditions

We systematically investigate the problem of representing Markov chains by families of random maps, and which regularity of these maps can be achieved depending on the properties of the probability measures. Our key idea is to use techniques from optimal transport to select optimal such maps. Optimal transport theory also tells us how convexity properties of the supports of the measures translate into regularity properties of the maps via Legendre transforms. Thus, from this scheme, we cannot only deduce the representation by measurable random maps, but we can also obtain conditions for the representation by continuous random maps. Finally, we present conditions for the representation of Markov chain by random diffeomorphisms.Comment: 22 pages, several changes from the previous version including extended discussion of many detail

Issue Engagement On Congressional Candidate Web Sites, 2002-2006

When candidates engage in robust policy debate, it gives citizens clear choices on issues that matter. Previous studies of issue engagement have primarily used indicators of campaign strategy that are mediated by reporters (e. g., newspaper articles) or indicators that may exclude candidates in less competitive races (e. g., television advertisements). We study issue engagement with data from a unique source, congressional candidate Web sites, that are unmediated and representative of both House and Senate campaigns. We find that the saliency of issues in public opinion is a primary determinant of candidate engagement. And, despite the unique capacity of the Internet to allow candidates to explain their positions on a large number of issues, candidates continue to behave strategically, selecting a few issues on which to engage their adversaries

Beyond the Fokker-Planck equation: Pathwise control of noisy bistable systems

We introduce a new method, allowing to describe slowly time-dependent Langevin equations through the behaviour of individual paths. This approach yields considerably more information than the computation of the probability density. The main idea is to show that for sufficiently small noise intensity and slow time dependence, the vast majority of paths remain in small space-time sets, typically in the neighbourhood of potential wells. The size of these sets often has a power-law dependence on the small parameters, with universal exponents. The overall probability of exceptional paths is exponentially small, with an exponent also showing power-law behaviour. The results cover time spans up to the maximal Kramers time of the system. We apply our method to three phenomena characteristic for bistable systems: stochastic resonance, dynamical hysteresis and bifurcation delay, where it yields precise bounds on transition probabilities, and the distribution of hysteresis areas and first-exit times. We also discuss the effect of coloured noise.Comment: 37 pages, 11 figure

Coherent States Measurement Entropy

Coherent states (CS) quantum entropy can be split into two components. The dynamical entropy is linked with the dynamical properties of a quantum system. The measurement entropy, which tends to zero in the semiclassical limit, describes the unpredictability induced by the process of a quantum approximate measurement. We study the CS--measurement entropy for spin coherent states defined on the sphere discussing different methods dealing with the time limit $n \to \infty$. In particular we propose an effective technique of computing the entropy by iterated function systems. The dependence of CS--measurement entropy on the character of the partition of the phase space is analysed.Comment: revtex, 22 pages, 14 figures available upon request (e-mail: [email protected]). Submitted to J.Phys.

The large deviation approach to statistical mechanics

The theory of large deviations is concerned with the exponential decay of probabilities of large fluctuations in random systems. These probabilities are important in many fields of study, including statistics, finance, and engineering, as they often yield valuable information about the large fluctuations of a random system around its most probable state or trajectory. In the context of equilibrium statistical mechanics, the theory of large deviations provides exponential-order estimates of probabilities that refine and generalize Einstein's theory of fluctuations. This review explores this and other connections between large deviation theory and statistical mechanics, in an effort to show that the mathematical language of statistical mechanics is the language of large deviation theory. The first part of the review presents the basics of large deviation theory, and works out many of its classical applications related to sums of random variables and Markov processes. The second part goes through many problems and results of statistical mechanics, and shows how these can be formulated and derived within the context of large deviation theory. The problems and results treated cover a wide range of physical systems, including equilibrium many-particle systems, noise-perturbed dynamics, nonequilibrium systems, as well as multifractals, disordered systems, and chaotic systems. This review also covers many fundamental aspects of statistical mechanics, such as the derivation of variational principles characterizing equilibrium and nonequilibrium states, the breaking of the Legendre transform for nonconcave entropies, and the characterization of nonequilibrium fluctuations through fluctuation relations.Comment: v1: 89 pages, 18 figures, pdflatex. v2: 95 pages, 20 figures, text, figures and appendices added, many references cut, close to published versio

Action Principle in Nonequilibrium Statistical Dynamics

We introduce a variational method for approximating distribution functions of dynamics with a ``Liouville operator'' \hL, in terms of a {\em nonequilibrium action functional} for two independent (left and right) trial states. The method is valid for deterministic or stochastic Markov dynamics, and for stationary or time-dependent distributions. A practical Rayleigh-Ritz procedure is advanced, whose inputs are finitely-parametrized ansatz for the trial states, leading to a ``parametric action'' for their evolution. The Euler-Lagrange equations of the action principle are Hamiltonian in form (generally noncanonical). This permits a simple identification of fixed points as critical points of the parametric Hamiltonian. We also establish a variational principle for low-order statistics, such as mean values and correlation functions, by means of {\em least effective action.} The latter is a functional of the given variable, which is positive and convex as a consequence of H\"{o}lder realizability inequalities. Its value measures the ``cost'' for a fluctuation from the average to occur and in a weak-noise limit it reduces to the Onsager-Machlup action. In general, the effective action is shown to arise from the nonequilibrium action functional by a constrained variation. This result provides a Rayleigh-Ritz scheme for calculating just the desired low-order statistics, with internal consistency checks less demanding than for the full distribution.Comment: 46 pages, LaTex Version 2.09, tar + gzip + uuencode The tar file contains xyzvar.tex, the LaTeX file itself, and seceq.sty, a stylefile for sequential numering of equations by section. The file seceq.sty will automatically be input from the same directory when formatting the LaTeX file. The paper is submitted to Phys. Rev.

Ontology-based end-user visual query formulation: Why, what, who, how, and which?

Value creation in an organisation is a time-sensitive and data-intensive process, yet it is often delayed and bounded by the reliance on IT experts extracting data for domain experts. Hence, there is a need for providing people who are not professional developers with the flexibility to pose relatively complex and ad hoc queries in an easy and intuitive way. In this respect, visual methods for query formulation undertake the challenge of making querying independent of users’ technical skills and the knowledge of the underlying textual query language and the structure of data. An ontology is more promising than the logical schema of the underlying data for guiding users in formulating queries, since it provides a richer vocabulary closer to the users’ understanding. However, on the one hand, today the most of world’s enterprise data reside in relational databases rather than triple stores, and on the other, visual query formulation has become more compelling due to ever-increasing data size and complexity—known as Big Data. This article presents and argues for ontology-based visual query formulation for end-users; discusses its feasibility in terms of ontology-based data access, which virtualises legacy relational databases as RDF, and the dimensions of Big Data; presents key conceptual aspects and dimensions, challenges, and requirements; and reviews, categorises, and discusses notable approaches and systems

Worst-Case Background Knowledge in Privacy

Recent work has shown the necessity of considering an attacker's background knowledge when reasoning about privacy in data publishing. However, in practice, the data publisher does not know what background knowledge the attacker possesses. Thus, it is important to consider the worst-case. In this paper, we initiate a formal study of worst-case background knowledge. We propose a language that can express any background knowledge about the data. We provide a polynomial time algorithm to measure the amount of disclosure of sensitive information in the worst case, given that the attacker has at most k pieces of information in this language. We also provide a method to efficiently sanitize the data so that the amount of disclosure in the worst case is less than a specified threshold

The Technological Development of Congressional Candidate Websites: How and Why Candidates Use Web Innovations

The Internet offers political candidates a new way to campaign. Part of the Internet\u27s novelty comes from technological options not available in most other media. Candidates, however, must weigh various benefits and costs in using a given technological innovation. For example, technology that allows for increased user interactivity may lead to a more stimulating web site but might distract users from the campaign\u27s central message. In this article, the authors use data from 444 congressional campaign web sites, over two elections, to examine how candidates approach web technology. They investigate the factors that lead candidates to utilize or avoid particular technological features. They show that technological adoption is determined by both practical and strategic political considerations. Of particular interest, the competitiveness of a candidate\u27s race leads the candidate to use more sophisticated presentation technologies but less advanced interactive innovations because these latter options interfere with the candidate\u27s message